There has been quite a stir after the state elections of Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. BJP suffered heavy losses making people wonder how they will fare in the Loksabha elections coming up in 2019. We will be voting after a long absense in the country, so I am watching how things are unfolding.

What I think is more important than the BJP defeat is the revival and increasing importance of regional parties rather than the national parties. In Telangana the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) won 88 of the 119 seats. His political ambition seems to be forming a front of regional parties to contest Loksabha election. Mizoram elections from Novemebr 26 did not cause as much stir as the BJP being ousted from the ‘Hindi belt’ states (Chhattishbargh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan) in the recent one. [I abhore the term Hindi belt, but more on that later].  Mizo National Front (MNF) won 28 of the 40 seats in Mizoram, in comparison to 5 for Congress and 1 for BJP.  In Rajasthan, the news of course is the ousting of BJP, but if we look at the other contenders, Beniwal’s  Rashtriya Lokatantrik Party (RLP), floated a month before the election after breaking away from BJP won 3 seats. They also got sizable votes in some districts they did not win, which ended up deciding the winner between Congress and BJP.

There is the caste, religion angle to all these, but I think the most impportant is that they are regional parties. Some think that a strong national party at the center is better for things to get done. Many vote differently in state elections vs Loksabha elections because of this. So, it might turn out to be the same old in 2019 with respect to the central government. The logic is that conglomeration of regional parties in power is unstable and moves slowly as it spends/wastes much more time to keep the motley crew together.  I think the time is well spent though. I prefer moving slowly, acknowledging the regional diversity in terms of people, practices, needs, motivations, what they value – what development means to each, rather than a national party that paints everybody and everything in broad strokes creating power pockets for some regions ignoring most others.

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PS: When Parag read this post he pointed out his research: A political economy of sub-national government spending in India. The point to be highlighted here is: “Politically less cohesive governements spend more on education and less on agriculture than there more cohesive counterparts.” Agricultural expenditure here is revenue expenditure related to votebank creation compared to education which is a developmental expenditure having long term effects.